Lasso leaves the National Assembly after his intervention in his impeachment trial. Photo: José Jácome

Ecuador is currently in a situation where the National Assembly has been dissolved, a weakened president is legislating by decree, and anticipated elections are expected in August. How did the South American country get into this situation? President Guillermo Lasso (a billionaire and owner of one of the country’s largest banks) reached his most critical point two years after being elected. According to polls, more than 80% of Ecuadorians disapprove of the way he runs the country. His only highlight was the Covid vaccination campaign of the first months of his administration, which contrasted with the fiasco of his predecessor. Last February, this rejection was ratified at the ballot box, when all the questions of a referendum proposed by the president were rejected by the voters. His rivals were the big winners in the local elections held in conjunction with the referendum. Lasso’s party has never had its own majority in the National Assembly, and relations with other parties have long been fraught with tension.

The most critical moment came weeks ago, when the National Assembly began impeachment proceedings against him for his decisions and omissions in a case of embezzlement in the oil sector. The plaintiffs in the National Assembly accused Lasso of knowing about and deliberately failing to act in the face of obvious irregularities in the contract between the state-owned Flota Petrolera Ecuatoriana (Flopec) and the offshore company Amazonas Tanker Pool. In addition, the intervention of the president’s brother-in-law, Danilo Carrera, in the opaque management of public companies in the energy sector is part of the accusation. According to anti-drug intelligence reports leaked by a media outlet, the president’s entourage was under investigation for links to the Albanian mafia, which transports drugs from South America to Europe. It was also revealed that this investigation was suspended by order of the executive branch. Several weeks ago, Rubén Chérrez, a close friend of Carrera’s, possible link to the Albanian mafia, and key figure in the accusations against the president, was assassinated. On the basis of these accusations, the impeachment process aimed to censure and remove Lasso, despite the government’s attempts to break the opposition, composed of the Partido Social Cristiano (a traditional right-wing party linked to the coastal oligarchy), the legislators from the leftist Revolución Ciudadana (the party of former president Rafael Correa), and various legislators from other parties.

Lasso, backed into a corner, abused and illegally used the constitutional figure commonly known as the “mutual-death” or “cross-death” (muerte cruzada). This allows the president to dissolve the assembly. The decree that activated the mechanism mentions an allegedly serious political crisis and social unrest, but it was clear, even from the president’s own statements in the international media, that it was a move to escape impeachment. Why do people speak of a “mutual-death”?  When this mechanism is activated, it does not guarantee the permanence of the president in office and early presidential and parliamentary elections are called. The date for these elections is August 20.

Since the complaints of unconstitutionality filed by several (now former) deputies were rejected, attention turned to the candidates. The parties or coalitions that want to run must choose a ticket that, according to recent reforms (ratified by the electoral authorities for the anticipated elections), must be composed of a man and a woman. Lasso announced that he will not run. Within the right-wing forces, the first pre-candidates are several figures linked to the disaster the country is going through, such as former congressman and ally of Lasso, Fernando Villavicencio. Another of these figures is Otto Sonneholzner, former vice president of Lenín Moreno and accomplice of the disastrous governmental management of the pandemic in 2020-2021. In an effort to regain space, the aforementioned Partido Social Cristiano is betting on Jan Topic, a controversial businessman from the private security sector who brags of being a war mercenary in Ukraine and in some African conflicts.

For the right wing, the transition implies only a change of helm within the elites (and not a change of model). Conversely, the parties on the left face the challenge of looking for figures who can lead in the year-and-half transitional period in order to create the conditions to offer the country a different model for facing the insecurity crisis and economic decline. This is not an easy task that should leave no room for improvisation, even if the greatest electoral capacity seems to be on the side of these forces. However, the discussion has so far been based on names and less on proposals. The indigenous movement does not have an easy time, as it is currently dealing with an unfinished transition in its political arm towards the sector led by Leonidas Iza, current president of the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE). Recently, Iza himself withdrew from the possibility of running for president. As of now, they will not have their own presidential candidate. The Citizen’s Revolution of former president Rafael Correa opted for a lesser-known figure: Luisa González, a former congresswoman who is thought to be very close and loyal to Correa. Despite many predictions of a repeat run, the former presidential candidate Andrés Arauz completes the ticket as candidate for vice-president. This young economist and former minister appears to be Correa’s choice of someone well prepared and experienced for key subjects in the administration. 

Despite the inevitable attention generated by the selection of candidates, Lasso’s authoritarian drift and the decisions he makes should sound some alarms. All political and social organizations must be vigilant that the elections proceed according to the expected timetable, denouncing any form of political persecution, and demanding that peaceful social protest not be obstructed during this period. Likewise, the progress of Lasso’s agenda should be monitored and, if necessary, questioned. The dissolution of the Assembly allows him to legislate by decree, and he has quickly enacted tax reforms favorable to the elite, announced several privatizations, the flexibilization of labor, and profound reforms of the social security system. Most of these reforms drift from his centrist campaign discourse in 2021, bring him closer to his own class interests and distance public policy from the needs of a country plunged into insecurity and lack of economic opportunities.